Public Wise in USA Today: What the War in Gaza Means for Voter Outreach Efforts

Since Oct. 7, 2023, it’s been clear that the war in Israel and Gaza is a concern for voters going into the 2024 general election. But the question is, how much of an impact will it have before, during and after Nov. 5, 2024?

Public Wise exists to secure a democracy that reflects the will and protects the rights of all people, but our democracy is under threat. From the January 6th insurrection to the continued proliferation of election denialism in state and local offices, our first priority this year is to ensure that election deniers and insurrectionists are not elected into positions of power. To do that, political organizers and voting rights advocates need to know how many voters – and who – are at risk of sitting out this election and what might persuade them to remain in the electorate.

A national poll found that 20% of 2020 Biden voters are not recommitted to Biden for the 2024 election with 9% planning to sit out or vote for someone else, and 11% remaining open to being persuaded. Among individuals who voted for President Biden in 2020, the war in Gaza is unlikely to be the centrally defining issue in November; however, it contributes to an overall lack of commitment to Biden, especially among the youngest voters. And for certain communities, the war in Gaza may constitute a tipping point issue.

Among the high-risk constituencies thought to be at most risk of sitting out the election – Arab-American voters, Muslim voters, Black progressives, Jewish voters, and Gen-Z voters – appealing to a voter’s desire to do what is best for themselves and their family was the most persuasive message to encourage voter participation in November. Many respondents appreciated a personal appeal that centered the voter and their loved ones, not politicians.