FULL REPORT: The War in Gaza and Voter Dynamics

This spring, Public Wise embarked on an ambitious research project to quantitatively and qualitatively assess how the War in Gaza might affect voter participation and election outcomes in November. We decided to gather quantitative data to help us understand the true size and scope of the impact that the War in Gaza may have on voter turnout as well as qualitative data to understand the contours of voter opinion among some key constituencies that are thought to be at highest risk of sitting out the election.

While this project may initially seem a bit outside the typical scope of Public Wise’s research purview, we have previously conducted research to better understand non-voters including what factors have led to eligible voters choosing not to participate in an election. Past findings have shown that the decision not to vote is not typically born out of apathy, as the dominant narrative suggests. Instead, high levels of disillusionment and lack of trust in government are major barriers to individuals turning out to vote. Our ultimate goal with this project was to determine how many voters, and who, are at risk of sitting out this election, and explore whether there are effective messages that could persuade them to remain in the electorate.

Key Findings 

Vote Intentions

• 11% of 2020 Biden voters nationally are not committed to Biden for the 2024 election, but have persuadable vote intentions. We define someone as having “persuadable vote intentions” if they are not currently planning to vote for Biden but still planning to vote, or are considering voting and are undecided about for whom.
• Another 9% of 2020 Biden voters are not committed to Biden and have less persuadable vote intentions. We define individuals as having “less persuadable vote intentions” if they plan not to vote or plan to vote for someone other than Biden (Trump or a third party candidate). 
• 9% of 2020 Trump voters nationally are not committed to Trump for the 2024 election, but have persuadable vote intentions. Again, we define someone as having “persuadable vote intentions” if they are not currently planning to vote for Trump but still planning to vote, or are considering voting and are undecided about for whom.
• Another 8% of 2020 Trump voters nationally are not committed to Trump for the 2020 election and have less persuadable vote intentions. 5% said they either will vote for Biden (5%), 2% will vote for someone else, and 1% will definitely or probably not vote (1%).

Biden’s Handling of the War in Gaza

• Approval of Biden’s handling of the War in Gaza is lower among Biden 2020 voters who are not yet committed to voting for him. Among 2020 Biden voters, disapproval of Biden’s handling was largely due to wanting the US to stay out of the conflict or perceptions that he is favoring the Israelis too much.
• Among Trump 2020 voters, just 9% of 2024 committeds approve of Biden’s handling of the conflict, while 28% of 2024 defectors approve. This may point to Trump 2024 defectors holding more moderate views overall and less animosity towards President Biden.
• Among Trump 2020 voters, a plurality of both 2024 committeds (42%) and 2024 defectors (38%) believe the U.S. should stay out of the conflict. 

Single Issue Voting

• The War in Gaza is unlikely to be the centrally defining issue of the 2024 Presidential election. Among both 2020 Biden Voters and 2020 Trump voters, 2% indicate that the War in Gaza is so important to them that it could determine their vote in November. Still, it is one important issue among a bundle of issues, including abortion, cost of living, and protecting democracy, that are shaping voters’ November 2024 intentions. For certain voters, the War in Gaza may constitute a tipping point issue. 
• A plurality of 2020 Trump Voters (37%) say that immigration/border security is so important to them that they would vote for or against a candidate based solely on that issue. This is more than double the response of any other issue, including inflation/cost of living, which was selected by 18% of 2020 Trump voters.
• Younger voters are more likely to cast their vote solely based on the War in Gaza, but they are also more open to casting their vote based on other single issues. Among 2020 Biden voters, young voters have the lowest level of support for Biden going into 2024 compared to other age brackets. A plurality of young 2020 Biden voters indicated that cost of living and inflation is the issue that could influence their vote. 

Qualitative Findings 

In our qualitative study of swing-state Jewish voters, Muslim voters, Arab-American voters, Gen Z voters, and Black progressives in the South, we found that, indeed, many individuals within these populations have strong opinions about the War in Gaza, but it is not the only thing on their mind. Cost of living and inflation, immigration, and abortion, are also impacting their decision about who to support and whether or not to vote in November. 

We offered three messages and attempted to gauge which, if any, these populations found persuasive in the context of encouraging someone to show up to vote in November. The first message, which we are calling “Me and My Family, Not a Single Issue,” received the most positive feedback. This message acknowledges that there are many issues that affect us, and voters have to weigh the candidates’ track records and cast their vote for the person that reflects what is best for them and for their family. Many respondents appreciated the personal appeal and that it centered the voter and the voters’ loved ones, not politicians. 

The other message, which we shorthanded as, “Pick the Lesser of Two Evils” performed less well and received much more critical feedback from respondents. 

Turning Research into Action

Based on our findings, we have a few strategic recommendations for organizations on the ground that are seeking to keep voters in the electorate to maximize turnout and civic participation in 2024.

First, when crafting messages for voters, whether it’s phonebank and door-knocking scripts or paid media, keep the focus on the voter. Utilize messages that rely on personal appeals and remind voters that they need to choose what is best overall for them and their family’s future. 

Second, do not be afraid to integrate multiple issues into a single communication to voters. While there are single issues that have the potential to sway a voter’s opinion, most voters approach elections holistically and see themselves as weighing many issues when voting. 

Third, do not disparage or degrade single-issue voters or voting (even when talking to non-single issue voters). Among non-single issue voters, we found high levels of empathy for people who may be single issue voters, especially on issues that are emotionally charged like abortion or the War in Gaza.