Democracy in the 2024 Election

Key Takeaways

1. Older Democrats are currently the core constituency motivated by protecting democracy, but it is still a key issue for many Democrats and those who plan to vote Biden in 2024.
2. Although protecting democracy is not the singularly motivating issue for most likely voters, substantial proportions of the electorate recognize that democracy is threatened by voter suppression and election denialism, with key tenets of the election denial movement rising to the top among a wide range of potential threats to US democracy. Articulating specific threats, rather than the idea of democracy in the abstract, appears to be a promising avenue for connecting with likely voters.
3. The issue of democracy could motivate a wider group of likely voters if we explicitly connect democracy to the issues others care about. Many, including young, undecided, and Black likely voters, already recognize that democracy is under threat, we just need to show them that the issues they care about are what’s at stake if democracy loses.

Democracy has been a key theme in recent elections. In 2022, election deniers ran in races from the top of the ticket down to local positions. Although they were largely unsuccessful in their bids for statewide offices, they fared much better in their bids for Congress, state legislatures, and in races for local offices. In total, we identified 344 insurrectionist candidates in the 2022 midterms and more than half of them won their elections.

Heading into the 2024 election, democracy remains under threat. Election deniers continue to run in races up and down the ballot, including for President, with Trump running as the Republican nominee for a third time. Indeed, in our newly released Election Threat Index, we at Public Wise have identified 348 election deniers across seven states who are currently in positions, including both elected and appointed, with influence over election administration.

Despite this, however, surveys indicate that democracy does not emerge as a key issue or concern for most Americans. In this piece, we explore if there are any groups for whom democracy is a key issue and consider some ways to elevate the issue of democracy for others. Broadly, we found that older Americans, especially Democrats 65+, are the core of the democracy constituency. However, that doesn’t mean that others don’t care about democracy. Our results suggest that many, including undecided, Black, and young likely voters, recognize that democracy is currently threatened by election deniers and voter suppression.

We suggest organizers explicitly illustrate the links between these groups’ highly salient issues – namely the cost of living and inflation, abortion, and influence of money in politics – and democracy. They already know that election denialism and voter suppression are key threats to democracy, we need to show them why that matters for the issues that are important to them.

The current democracy constituency

In our recent survey,¹ we asked, “Some people feel so strongly about an issue that they will vote for or against a candidate for president based on that issue alone. Below is a list of issues. Please indicate if there is any one issue on this list that is so important to you that you would vote for or against a candidate based only on their position on that issue.”

Among all likely voters,² the issue of protecting democracy came in at number four. However, when we look at those who say they plan to vote for Biden in 2024, protecting democracy is the number one choice: 20% of those who say they plan to vote for Biden in 2024 said protecting democracy is so important to them that they will base their vote on that one issue alone. We see a similar story for self-identified Democrats: 18% selected protecting democracy.

Older Democrats are central to the democracy vote

When we dig into the numbers, we see that older Americans, especially Democrats, are the driving force behind concern over democracy. Among likely voters 18-29, only 5% say democracy is the single issue on which they will base their vote. And this doesn’t change much when you look only at 18-29 year old Democrats, among which 6% said they will base their vote on protecting democracy. In fact, looking at all likely voters under 55, only 8% said they will base their vote on protecting democracy alone. Among Democrats under 55, it only increases to 11%.

However, when we look at an older population, we see something different. For all likely voters 55-64, 13% said protecting democracy is their single issue. This same figure for Democrats is 22%. Among all likely voters 65 and up, 17% said protecting democracy is their single issue. But among Democrats 65+, it more than doubles to 35%.

Looking at everyone who selected protecting democracy as a single issue, 26% of them are Democrats 65+ and an additional 14% are 65+ of another party. In total, 40% of those who say protecting democracy is the single issue on which they will base their vote are 65 or older and 61% are 55+. Of those 55+ who said protecting democracy is their single issue, 83% plan to vote for Biden.

Do other groups care about democracy?

It’s important to acknowledge that older Democrats are the core of the democracy constituency, but we wondered whether there are other groups that could be motivated by the issue of protecting democracy. Although we originally designed this survey to understand more about single-issue voters, whether any given issue is the single issue upon which someone plans to base their vote is not the only metric of issue importance. Indeed, virtually all (95%) likely voters in our sample agreed with the statement “Elections aren’t just about one issue. You have to look at each candidate as a whole and evaluate how much they align with your values on multiple issues, regardless of how you might feel about a specific issue.”

Moreover, the word democracy may not evoke the same idea for everyone. This is probably especially true when it comes to young voters, for whom the Trump presidency and post-Trump era of election denialism are the only reference points. For them, the word democracy probably doesn’t mean the same thing as it does for those who became politically aware at other moments. For these reasons, it’s particularly important to be explicit about what we mean when we say democracy and what is threatening it.

When we are explicit, we see that many likely voters not only recognize key threats to democracy, but also categorize them as major threats.

Among all likely voters, threats related to election denialism were among the top 5 major threats selected out of the choices we offered in the survey. 39% of all likely voters said Trump is a major threat to democracy, 45% said politicians who refuse to accept the results of elections they disagree with are a major threat (“election deniers” from here forward), and 44% said laws that make it harder for Americans to vote are a major threat. For Biden 2024 voters and Democrats, these threats rose to the top among all potential threats: 73% said Trump is a major threat, 72% said election deniers are a major threat, and 64% said voter suppression laws are a major threat.

Looking at undecided voters, election denialism-related threats are also among the top: 38% say Trump, 49% say election deniers, and 38% say voter suppression laws are major threats. However, these threats rank below both the influence of money in politics, which was number one, categorized as major by 62% of undecided voters, as well as the threat of people voting illegally, which was second, with 51% of undecided voters saying it’s a major threat to democracy. Voter fraud also rose to the top with 46% of undecided likely voters categorizing it as a major threat to democracy. This suggests that undecided voters may be susceptible to election denial rhetoric and lies about US elections if they are not explicitly reminded of the threat this movement poses to democracy. These undecided voters are essentially up for grabs, and the candidate whose messaging strikes at the heart of this population’s concerns is likely to win their vote in November. By emphasizing anti-corruption and combating the influence of money in politics, as well as explicitly foregrounding the dangers of election denialism, Democrats could persuade these voters.

With younger voters, we see something similar. Voter suppression laws and election deniers are among the top threats to democracy, with 43% and 45% of 18-29 year olds saying each is a major threat, respectively. However, among those top threats, people voting illegally and voter fraud come out ahead of both election deniers and voter suppression laws; suggesting again that young likely voters are also highly susceptible to anti-democracy rhetoric and lies about the legitimacy of US elections.

Similar to undecided voters, we see that the influence of money in politics is the top threat to democracy among 18-29 year old likely voters (tied with voter fraud).³ Across multiple slices of the electorate, and among all likely voters overall, the influence of money in politics ranks as the top major threat to democracy.

For the youngest voters, notably, Trump ranks below all of the aforementioned threats at number six. Just 26% of 18-29 year olds see him as a major threat to democracy, despite his incitement of the January 6th insurrection and repeated attempts to undermine the 2020 election with the Big Lie. When it comes to younger voters, just saying “Trump is bad for democracy” is not enough. Instead, it appears that naming the explicit threats facing democracy is more effective when it comes to younger likely voters, particularly those 18-29 years old.

Among Black likely voters, we see a similar pattern. The top three threats to democracy include election deniers, voter suppression laws, and Trump. But voter fraud and people voting illegally are also among the top threats to democracy, alongside the influence of money in politics.

All issues are democracy issues

Is it possible to expand the democracy constituency beyond older, largely Democratic likely voters? We think it is. Because undecided, younger, and Black likely voters already recognize that democracy is threatened by both election denialism and voter suppression, messaging that explicitly links the issues they care about to democracy can show them that when democracy is under threat, so are those issues. Moreover, given that these groups also appear susceptible to misinformation about widespread voter fraud and people voting illegally, pro-democracy messaging that actually resonates with them has the potential to counter misinformation and lies that might persuade them to vote against democracy.

While it’s not unusual to hear that top of mind issues should be linked to the issue of democracy, there are few existing explicit and succinct examples of how this might work. Here we provide three potential strategies for messaging on democracy, related to the cost of living and inflation, abortion, and the influence of money in politics.

Cost of living and inflation

The cost of living and inflation are top of mind for many Americans, including young adults. About a quarter of both 18-29 year old and 30-44 year old likely voters in our sample say it is the single issue upon which they will base their vote. And when we combine the cost of living and inflation with the issue of jobs and wages, 36% of likely voters 18-29 and a third of 30-44 year old likely voters said that some issue related to affordability is the single issue that will decide their vote in 2024.

Although Republican opposition to policies that would benefit the majority of Americans has resulted in gridlock at the Congressional level, that doesn’t mean that there’s been no movement on economic policies to make life more affordable. In many cities and states, people have taken economic issues directly to a vote through ballot initiatives.

Minimum wage increases are one of these ballot initiatives. At the federal level, the minimum wage has not been increased since 2007. However, at the state level, measures to increase the minimum wage were on the ballot 28 times between 1996 and 2022. They passed 26 of those times. In fact, a minimum wage increase initiative has not been rejected since 1996. And this doesn’t even account for minimum wage increases at the local level, which have been enacted by several localities.

Other common ballot initiatives include those related to housing costs. For example, rent control initiatives have recently proven popular in many cities. In the 2022 midterms alone, three cities (Portland, Maine and Richmond and Santa Monica, both in California) and Orange County, Florida all voted in favor of efforts to cap rent increases.

Republicans know these policies are broadly popular and continue to increase in popularity as the cost of living becomes more unaffordable. Instead of finding solutions to the affordability crisis facing many Americans, especially younger ones, they have looked for ways to either block or make it harder for ballot initiatives to pass – cutting off one of the most effective pathways for Americans to enact the economic policies they need.

For example, Arizona currently requires signatures equal to 10% of the last gubernatorial vote to put statutes on the ballot and 15% for constitutional amendments. However, Republicans in the state legislature want to apply these thresholds to each legislative district, requiring 10 or 15% of the votes from each district rather than 10 or 15% of the total in the state. As Democrats in the legislature have pointed out, this would allow any single district to block ballot initiatives on which the rest of the state wants to vote. Voters in both Ohio and Arkansas recently blocked similar measures to make ballot initiatives harder to pass, but voters in both Arizona and North Dakota will vote on whether to approve or reject their measures in November.

Republicans make it harder for Americans to vote because they know their policies, which benefit the wealthiest people and corporations at the expense of everyone else, won’t win when all Americans have the opportunity to have a say.

Abortion

Another top of mind issue for many young likely voters – and others – is abortion. As a singularly motivating issue, abortion did not rank as highly as the cost of living and inflation for young, undecided, or Black likely voters: 10% of those both 18-29 and 30-44, 11% of undecided, and 7% of Black likely voters said it is the single issue upon which they will base their vote. However, we know from several ballot initiatives that abortion is a highly motivating issue for voters.

How is it that abortion is currently banned or severely restricted in 21 states when 71% of Americans support the right to an abortion in all or most cases? First, an unelected Supreme Court filled with corrupt far-right appointees issued the Dobbs decision, which paved the way for highly gerrymandered state legislatures to enact policies in direct opposition to the preferences of their constituents. 

It cannot be overstated that they reason the far right attacks and undermines democracy – by weaponizing unaccountable courts, making it harder to vote, and undermining the outcomes of legitimate elections – is because they know that when Americans actually have a say on the issue of abortion, we vote to uphold abortion rights every time.

Since the Dobbs decision was released in 2022:

• Americans in six states have voted in favor of abortion rights: California, Kentucky, Kansas, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont.
• Abortion is already confirmed on the 2024 ballot in another four states: Colorado, Florida, Maryland, and South Dakota.
• Abortion is likely to be on the ballot in an additional five states, where advocates are still in the process of getting it on the ballot: Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Nevada.

Because they know that Americans in all states support abortion rights, some Republicans are now trying to make it harder for citizens to put issues like abortion to a direct vote. As noted above, this type of initiative was recently rejected in Ohio and Arkansas, but will be on the ballot this year in both Arizona and North Dakota.

The bottom line, again, is Republicans are making it harder to vote and denying the results of legitimate elections because they know that when democracy works, it doesn’t benefit them.

The influence of money in politics

Our final example is not about a top of mind issue, but instead a top of mind threat to democracy. Across multiple surveys, we have consistently found that among a wide range of possible threats to democracy, the influence of money in politics is either the top threat or among the top threats for multiple groups. For undecided likely voters, it came in at number one, with 62% saying it is a major threat to democracy.

We need to clearly articulate why, if someone is concerned about the influence of money in politics, they should care about protecting democracy. The wealthiest Americans pour money into politics because they want to increase their influence over policy. And not only do they spend money on things like elections and lobbying, but we also know they have spent untold amounts of undisclosed gifts to conservative justices on the Supreme Court; which has consistently been a key player in the subversion of democracy, including through their decision on Citizens United, which is at the center of the unfair influence of money in politics.

The influence they obtain by pouring money into politics drowns out the voices of everyday Americans, allowing the wealthiest people to lobby for policies that rig the rules in their favor and preventing the government from doing things that actually address the needs of everyday Americans.

One area where this issue is especially evident is in tax policy, where Republicans continue to do the bidding of the wealthiest people and corporations.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported the US corporate tax rate, currently at 21%, is the “biggest single variable in the sprawling 2025 tax debate,” noting that “the two parties are trying to turn that dial in opposite directions with major consequences for companies’ profits.” While Democrats and President Biden want to increase the corporate tax rate to 28%, Republicans want to lower it to 15%. According to the WSJ, there is a trillion+ dollar gap between the two party’s positions “giving the largest US companies an outsize interest in the election’s outcome [emphasis added].”

Young, undecided, Black – and all – likely voters need to be reminded who wants to reduce the influence of money in politics. Democrats want policies ensuring that when they cast their vote, it’s not drowned out by exorbitant sums of money. Democrats are the ones who have introduced plans to crack down on the influence of money in politics and fight corruption. They have introduced the DISCLOSE Act, which would strengthen disclosure requirements, as well as the Freedom to Vote Act, which includes several provisions to curb the influence of money in politics including increased transparency and enforcement of campaign finance laws. Republicans in Congress have blocked both of these bills.

How we protect democracy in 2024

As we get closer to the 2024 election, the stakes for democracy continue to grow. Since 2020, election deniers have continued to infiltrate public office, securing both elected and appointed positions with significant influence over both policy and election administration. Trump – who was just convicted of 34 felony counts in one criminal case and still faces 54 felony counts in the remaining three cases has already stated that he will be a “dictator” on his first day in office, and vows to weaponize the Justice Department against his political rivals – is basically tied with Biden in the polls.

With two candidates who have already served as President, the rematch between Biden and Trump doesn’t leave much room for indecision. Most Americans are extremely familiar with the candidates, their differences, and already know who they plan to vote for in the upcoming election. This means groups like undecided, young, and Black voters will once again prove critically important in protecting democracy.

For those who are actually undecided, persuading them to vote for democracy is critical. At the same time, although Biden continues to lead Trump among both younger and Black Americans, turnout among these groups will be key. In the last presidential election, estimates place youth turnout at around 50% with 61% of them voting for Biden. This was a huge jump from estimated youth turnout in 2016, which was around 39%. Similarly, for Black Americans, turnout in 2020 was estimated to be 66%, a 5 percentage point increase from 2016, but still lower than Black voter turnout in 2008 and 2012. Motivating these groups to show up for Biden and other pro-democracy candidates on the ballot will require effective strategies to counter misinformation about widespread voter fraud and people voting illegally – misinformation that could persuade them to vote on the side of election denialism and voter suppression.

Our data suggest that one such strategy is to explicitly articulate the links between democracy and the issues they care about. Because many already recognize that voter suppression and election denialism pose a major threat to democracy, drawing the line from those threats to the policies they care about will show them that when democracy is at stake, so is their ability to vote on and enact the policies that will make their lives better. Ultimately, all issues are democracy issues; and when democracy is at stake, so is our ability to ensure that our government and policies reflect the world in which we want to live.

For democracy advocates and organizers, we recommend two key points when making the link between democracy and key issues explicit. First, we have to remind voters that efforts to undermine democracy are ultimately about denying Americans the right to vote for and obtain the policies they want on the issues they care about. And second, there are lots of instances when voting has brought about or clearly could bring about specific and tangible wins for everyday Americans on the issues they care about most. Point to these victories. Remind voters that many Republicans undermine the results of legitimate elections and want to make it harder to vote because they know that when we vote, we win.

Footnotes

¹ Data come from a survey we conducted with YouGov from March 21 – April 3, 2024. The sample is nationally representative, consisting of 5,125 registered voters with a 1.4% margin of error. For these analyses, we limited the sample to likely voters, or the 4,797 respondents who said they will probably or definitely vote in the 2024 presidential election.
² Those in our sample who said they will definitely or probably vote in the 2024 presidential election, n=4,797.
³ Like us, you may be thinking that 18-29 year old Democrats are less susceptible to election denial rhetoric than younger voters who don’t identify as Democrats. There are definitely partisan gaps, but the gaps between young Democrats and Republicans are much smaller than the gaps between older Democrats and Republicans. For example, 49% of 18-29 Democrats said election deniers are a major threat compared to 37% of Republicans of the same age. The same figures for likely voters 65+: 91% of Democrats 65+ said they’re a major threat compared to only 17% of Republicans of the same age.